Luka Biong Deng, Kush Inc
An Opinion to the New Nation Newspaper
Juba, 26th March 2012
When the Republic of South Sudan celebrates its first anniversary of independence in July 2012, the world will assess to what extent the newest member of the United Nations (UN) has lived up to the values and principles enshrined in the UN Charter. As a member of the UN, the Republic of South Sudan has reaffirmed its faith in fundamental human rights and has committed itself to the pursuit of justice and respect for obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law.
The scheduled summit between our President Kiir and President Bashir of Sudan, to be held in Juba during the first week of April, has generated healthy debate in South Sudan on the diplomatic, political and moral implications of such a visit. Unlike President Bashir’s past visits to the South, the upcoming visit will be his first since South Sudan declared its independence and took on new international obligations in July 2011.
Although President Bashir’s visit may be seen as reciprocating President Kiir’s visit to Khartoum in October 2011, in fact the genesis of this summit came from Sudan’s delegation in Addis Ababa when the post-secession talks were about to collapse. Interestingly, Sudan’s delegation not only initiated this summit but also suggested the individuals who should visit Khartoum to deliver the invitation letter to President Bashir. Given that Mr. Pagan Amum, the chief negotiator of the South, has been very vocal about the outrageous behavior of Khartoum on the unfinished business of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and post-secession issues, the Sudan delegation suggested, as a gesture of goodwill, that Mr. Pagan Amum should be part of the delegation that would deliver the invitation letter to President Bashir in Khartoum.
South Sudan’s bold decision to stop oil production has caused international consternation, but it has also served as a wake up call for both states. It has caused each to consider important austerity measures that could, if implemented, greatly improve economic governance and accountability. It has highlighted the need to diversify revenues and combat resource dependency. Unfortunately, the South is poorly prepared to manage the consequences of the crisis and without oil, Sudan’s economy faces the danger of the imminent collapse, the two states are forced to negotiate with one another. This presents a golden opportunity for resolving the unfinished business of the CPA and post-secession issues.
Although we may not know the content of the invitation letter delivered to President Bashir, I suspect that President Kiir might have reiterated the need to resolve the pending issues as a package in the next summit. On the other hand, Khartoum will be keen to approach these issues in a piecemeal fashion with a focus on resuming oil production and export through their pipelines and securing transitional financial assistance to rescue their collapsing economy. They will likely want to leave other issues such as Abyei, border demarcation, and Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile to be discussed afterwards. This piecemeal approach seems to be gaining support from the international community, particularly the African Union High-level Implementation Panel.
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Besides the different expectations about the outcome of the summit, the issue of the venue has triggered debate of whether to hold it in Juba or outside South Sudan in light of the fact that President Bashir is indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and is notoriously known as a President with a scandalous record of gross human rights abuses, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing and genocide in Southern Sudan, Darfur, Abyei, Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, Eastern Sudan and Manasiir in the far north of Sudan. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Secretary General, Mr. Pagan Amum, correctly stated that the new Republic of South Sudan is not a signatory to the Rome Statute and therefore has no legal obligations to the ICC. However, the South Sudan came into being as a result of the great sacrifices and long struggle, of its people and others who stood with them, for justice, respect for human dignity and fundamental rights. The values upon which the SPLM built the liberation struggle are the very values upon which our new nation is founded. They are more binding than any other international legal obligations. One would have expected the SPLM, as a political party, to not associate itself with Bashir’s visit to Juba, but to leave such a visit to be handled by the Government in the light of its practical and political considerations.
Although the SPLM Secretary General’s visit to Khartoum is intended to promote peace and build good relations between the two states, it has also served the public relations strategy of the National Congress Party (NCP). The NCP will effectively use this visit to show the world and the Sudanese people that the very person who exhausted all words in describing the ugliness of the regime in Khartoum has not only met Bashir in his office, but met him with big smiles. This saga of the visit of Bashir to Juba also raises organizational issues and concerns over inseparability between the government and the Party. It would have been better for our Minister of Foreign Affairs to deliver the invitation letter to President Bashir instead of the SPLM Secretary General. What seems to be happening now is that both the SPLM and the government are gambling at a very high moral and diplomatic cost on a summit that may end up as a mere public relations exercise.
One would have wished to be optimistic about the outcome of the summit, but my experience in negotiating with NCP has led me to always prepare for the worst. It is likely that during this summit there will be a deal on oil, transitional financial assistance, finalization of agreement on the four freedoms and border trade, cosmetic issues related to Abyei such as signing of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and withdrawal of Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) from Abyei area. It is unlikely that the summit will resolve the Abyei issue as the NCP will be looking for an appropriate ransom, either financially or through security assurances in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states. In fact, Abyei will continue to remain a lucrative hostage to the NCP as rightly described by the SPLM Secretary General.
With the resumption of oil production and the flow of oil through the pipelines in Sudan, the NCP’s ransacked economy will recover and it will be able to continue committing atrocities in Darfur, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile and to suppress democratic voices in Sudan, particularly that of the SPLM-North. With the flow of oil through the pipelines in Sudan, the South will be able to contain the economic crisis and political consequences of austerity measures, but it will again continue to be vulnerable to the whims of the NCP. The visit of Bashir to Juba will also
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allow the NCP to score very well diplomatically as their President will manage to defy the ICC in the country that knows his cruelty best.
Judging from the public mood about Bashir’s visit, the people of South Sudan will be extremely unhappy if he in fact comes to Juba. They would only be satisfied with the summit if it could come out with results that reassure them of their independence, secure access to pipelines, normalization of border trade, resolution of border issues and the return of Abyei area back to the South. Working towards resolving the pending issues as a package would help to justify the visit of Bashir to Juba, but his visit would still pose diplomatic and moral challenges to the new nation.
All of this considered, it would have been in the best interest of the government to convene such a summit outside South Sudan where it could achieve the same results without any moral or diplomatic embarrassment. If the summit is to be held in Juba, the leadership of the South should work towards a package deal as a prerequisite. Even if the South gets a partial deal, particularly on oil, the government should continue to look for an alternative pipeline and to focus more on pro-poor agricultural growth as an effective way of benefiting the rural community from oil rent. If this summit ends up as a mere public relations event, the risks are very high that the new nation will join the short list of countries that have indirectly condoned the crimes committed by Bashir by allowing him to visit Juba.
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