The
nexus of oil, war and humanitarian catastrophe is an opportunity for
the powers involved (increasingly Beijing) to come together to press for
a solution
On the surface, our recent trip to the rebel-held areas of Sudan’s
Nuba Mountains hauntingly echoed earlier visits to Darfur and South
Sudan. A huge group of people—targeted by their government in Khartoum
because of their ethnicity, the rich land they live on, and their
resistance to dictatorship — are being serially bombarded, raped,
abducted, and starved in this case for the second time in the last two
decades. The culprit remains the same as well: the Khartoum regime led
by General Omar al-Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court
for crimes against humanity. This human rights catastrophe within Sudan
is unfolding alongside a virtual state of war between Sudan and South
Sudan, playing itself out in the border oilfields not far from the Nuba
Mountains.
A closer look, however, reveals three startlingly new dynamics that
together provide an unprecedented opportunity for peacemaking in the
region, even as wider war threatens. If this chance is missed, and
conflict between Sudan and South Sudan intensifies, the result will
undoubtedly be the deadliest conventional war on the face of the earth.
First, the South Sudan government in Juba has shut off the oil wells
providing both governments with most of their income, as the bulk of the
oil flows from South Sudan’s oil wells through Sudan’s pipeline. Both
countries face economic catastrophe as a result, with collapsed
currencies, hyper-inflation, and massive food deficits likely as state
treasuries are emptied. This introduces new urgency for a comprehensive
peace deal that addresses the outstanding issues between the two states
as well as creating a process to resolve the parallel civil war within
Sudan taking place in the Nuba Mountains, Darfur and other restive
regions. As President Salva Kiir told us, “We didn’t shut down the oil
indefinitely. We want a solution.”
Second, China’s interests are evolving. Before South Sudan gained its
independence last year, China reflexively defended its commercial
partner in Khartoum, frustrating international efforts to press the
Sudanese regime for peace or human rights compromises. Since the bulk of
the oil now lies south of Sudan’s new border, China must deal with both
countries to secure a continuing return on its $20 billion oil sector
investment. Peace is very much in China’s national interest.
Third, the ongoing crisis in Sudan and South Sudan has historically
been a humanitarian concern. But the shutoff of South Sudan’s production
has an impact on global energy supplies, and thus, as both President
Barack Obama and Senator Richard Lugar pointed out recently, on the
price of gas at U.S. pumps. China was reliant on over 6% of its daily
imports from the Sudans, but now has to dip into global markets to meet
that shortfall. Getting Sudanese supply back on the market is even more
imperative due to intensifying U.S. efforts to sanction Iran’s oil
exports. Suddenly it is in the national interest of the U.S. and other
major oil importers to help secure a deal to counter energy price
inflation.
We hope Khartoum can be pressured to stop using starvation as a war
weapon by opening aid access to the Nuba Mountains and other areas in
extreme need. We also heard repeatedly from Nuba civilians hiding in
caves that their most urgent need is to end the Sudan regime’s bombing
of their villages and farms.
The above three new dynamics provide a chance to end the bombing and
starvation once and for all. The nature of Chinese engagement may hold
the key. As the two largest energy consumers in the world, China and the
U.S. share a common interest in Sudanese peace. Beijing has more
influence than anyone in both Juba and Khartoum. In the aftermath of
their meeting in South Korea, Presidents Obama and Hu have a golden
opportunity to deepen strategic cooperation to buttress foundering
African Union mediation. More visible efforts are required in the form
of a joint task force or shared leadership of a small group of
influential countries that throw their collective weight behind specific
African proposals. Such proposals need to more comprehensively address
the interlocking economic and political issues that fuel instability
within and between Sudan and South Sudan. Beijing and Washington need to
quickly formalize their partnership. Lasting peace in that region will
not come easily or quickly.
African mediation lacks hardball leverage. In addition to deeper
Sino-American cooperation, further influence could be created if the
U.S. and interested allies initiate a hard target search for the assets
of Sudanese war criminals and their commercial interests. If those
assets can’t be frozen, they should be publicized so that those most
responsible for continuing cycles of conflict can be exposed to their
own publics for how much oil money they have stolen over the years in
the war economy they created.
Missing this window of opportunity for peace may result in a few more
pennies at the pump in the U.S. and Europe, but for the Sudans it could
cost millions of lives.
George Clooney and John Prendergast are co-founders of the Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP),
a partnership between the Enough Project, Harvard Humanitarian
Initiative, and DigitalGlobe. The SSP has documented evidence that
forces with the government of Sudan razed five towns and villages and
bombarded civilians in the border areas of Abyei, South Kordofan and
Blue Nile state.
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