15 Feb 2012 13:00
By Katy Migiro
NAIROBI (AlertNet) – Experts warn that a quarter of a million Sudanese could be on the brink of famine
by March. War between the government and rebels in South Kordofan and
Blue Nile states means that few humanitarian agencies can access to
those at risk.
Some 140,000 refugees have crossed into neighbouring South Sudan and
Ethiopia and the United Nations (U.N.) warns this figure could reach 500,000 in the coming months.
“It's likely that hunger conditions will have to worsen further
before sufficient pressure builds on the government of Sudan to start
relaxing restrictions on humanitarian access,” said Aly Verjee, a senior
researcher with the Rift Valley Institute.
“Even in such circumstances, Khartoum will resist granting complete
and unconditional access. Past mechanisms, notably the Operation
Lifeline Sudan (OLS) model, may be resurrected or re-branded in an
attempt to deal with the current crisis.”
Operation Lifeline was a U.N.-coordinated relief effort that flew aid
into South Sudan from 1989 to the end of Sudan's Second Civil War in
2005.
OLS: A LANDMARK DEAL TO DELIVER AID
* In 1988, a famine in Bahr el-Ghazal, now part of South Sudan,
killed 250,000 people. The famine was largely caused by Sudan’s Second
Civil War, which lasted from 1983 to 2005.
* In 1989, OLS was set up. This landmark agreement among the U.N.,
the government of Sudan and rebels of the Sudan People’s Liberation
Army (SPLA) agreed that civilians had a right to humanitarian aid, even
when living in the midst of a civil war.
* OLS became one of largest humanitarian operations in the world,
with up to $1 million a day spent by the U.N. and 40 non-governmental
organisations (NGOs).
* OLS’s success depended on the application of international pressure
on warring parties to allow humanitarian access. “Corridors of
tranquility” were set up to allow aid to be delivered.
* Being in northern Sudan, South Kordofan and Blue Nile were excluded from OLS.
* Under the agreement, flight requests had to be submitted to the
government and the rebels for approval each month. Access was regularly
denied on security grounds.
AID EFFORT 'FED THE WAR'
* Both warring parties were accused of manipulating aid to their
advantage by illegally requisitioning food for their own benefit and
looting relief sites.
* Critics charge that OLS did not put enough pressure on the warring
parties to negotiate peace. “Focus on the technicalities of relief
has often diverted international attention away from a realistic
strategy for ending the war,” scholar David Keen said.
* In 1998, another famine in Bahr el-Ghazal killed 100,000 people,
despite the OLS presence. The government of Sudan had suspended aid in
February and March.
* Critics charge OLS with prolonging the war. “Humanitarian aid
allows an otherwise weaker opponent to strengthen its resource base and
consequently to mount a more prolonged defense,” said Holly Philpot of the University of Denver.
* “In South Sudan, humanitarian aid evolved from a deliberate means
of feeding civilians to an unintentional tool for feeding the war…
When both the government and the SPLA sought to manipulate aid for
their own benefit, the humanitarian community did not know how to halt
the abuse without also stopping aid to victims,” Philpot wrote.
* “The final lesson learned from OLS is that organizations entering
conflict zones should have a clear understanding of the principles on
which they are not willing to compromise and should have secondary plans
(including withdrawal) ready for instances of manipulation or lack of
cooperation by belligerent parties,” she concluded.
* In 2005, OLS ended with the signing of a peace deal, which eventually led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
AID TO DARFUR
* War broke out in Sudan’s western region of Darfur in 2003 with massive displacement, again, causing widespread hunger.
* In Darfur, more emergency relief has got through, limiting mass deaths.
* Humanitarian aid continues to be delayed and blocked by the government.
* Humanitarian actors have, once again, been criticised for failing
to exert more political and economic pressure to sue for peace.
* Oil interests and terrorism concerns have prevented robust diplomacy from the West, according to Keen.
(Editing by Julie Mollins)
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