Can al-Bashir defeat regional forces at an all-out frontline?

 

By Barbara Among  (email the author)

Posted  Sunday, April 22  2012 at  00:00

In Summary

In the event that war breaks out between the North and South, 10 regional countries are likely to be sucked in, reminiscent of the 1998 DR Congo war that drew in eight countries.

Kampala

This week, the simmering conflict between Sudan and its neighbour South Sudan flared into an almost full-fledged war. The week kick-started with the Juba government in the South announcing that it had taken control of the oil-rich town of Heglig from troops loyal to Khartoum. That same day, Khartoum responded by bombarding Jonglei and Heglig town. In the ensuing fight, the SPLA government shot down two fighter planes belonging to the Khartoum government.

By mid-week, the escalating fighting and rhetoric between the two sides over the past week had led to fears of an all-out war and the international community set in.

The UN Secretary-General, Mr Ban Ki-moon, called on the Juba government to withdraw from Heglig. In response, President Salva Kiir reportedly told Ban Ki Moon on Phone, “I am not under your command.”

The US ambassador to UN also called on the two countries to cease hostilities.

By end of week, Gen. Kiir, despite cocking to his parliament that they would not bow to pressures from the UN, ordered his troops to pull out of Heglig. He, however, maintained that the South still believed that Heglig was a part of its territory and that its final status should be determined by international arbitration.

Gen. Bashir, while addressing a rally on Friday in Khartoum, told supporters: “We thank God that he made successful your sons; and the security forces and the police force and the defence forces - he has made them victorious on this Friday.”

Murky relations

On state TV, his defence minister said Sudan’s armed forces had entered Heglig. It will, however, take three more days before SPLA withdraws completely from Heglig.

The relation between the world’s youngest nation and Sudan is hampered over how the two would share oil revenues. While most of the oil come from South Sudan’s territory, the mineral has always been transported through Sudan’s oil pipelines to foreign markets.

While there is no formal declaration of war as yet, Sudan has said it is ready and determined to engage the South Sudan army in full combat over the oil fields.

“Heglig isn’t the end, it is the beginning,” President Bashir was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying on a Thursday visit to South Kordofan state, where Sudan is facing a separatist rebellion by Nuba Mountain militants. “And we shall go all the way to Juba.”

South Sudan has, however ,over the years cultivated relationship with its East African neighbours Ethiopia, Kenya - where it has got strong economic ties - and Uganda, where it has got strong military ties. It is also known to support rebel groups in the north.

Oil agreements
Last month, it signed an agreement with Kenya for the construction of an oil pipeline from South Sudan to Kenya through the port of Lamu. The agreement, like many projected to come with its East African neighbours, was after it passed a Cabinet resolution to shut down the oil operation through the pipeline which passes through the north, port Sudan.

China has continued to strengthen its relationship with the Juba government, who also enjoy a clean breath of pampering from the US government, while Bashir is increasingly isolated.

Hanging around his neck is the ICC arrest warrant for alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in Darfur region. It is said he is also grappling with high cost of maintaining a bloated government as he lost 75 per cent of oil revenue to South Sudan when it seceded last July,

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